This ultimate stay-at-home play may run into trouble, but analyst Gene Munster debunks chatter Big Tech is primed for a pullback

One of the ultimate stay-at-home plays is getting ready to report second-quarter earnings after Thursday's market close: Netflix.

According to longtime tech analyst Gene Munster, it may signal a reality check for some investors.

"It can meet some high expectations, but ultimately, I think shares are going to get top heavy here in the next few months," the Loup Ventures founder and managing partner told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

In Netflix's case, Munster sees a great business experiencing surging growth from a rush of new subscriptions during coronavirus lockdowns. It's an impressive performance Munster believes will be hard to repeat, and he warns it could put pressure on the stock.

"Your money is better put in other companies," he said.

Overall, Munster said he believes tech's record run will survive earnings season intact. He suggests Wall Street chatter regarding profit-taking risks are overdone.

"I don't see much vulnerability there — maybe a few percentage downside," he said.

Munster predicts risks will climb around third-quarter earnings season.  

"The real recovery in the market has been about what expectations are for the December quarter," added Munster. "As we get closer to guidance there in three months, I think that is going to be kind of the pivotal question."

For now, Munster sees a couple of tech high flyers building on record momentum.

'Apple is probably one of the best plays in 5G'

"One of the biggest companies has the most upside, and that's Apple," he said. "If you fast forward, Apple is probably one of the best plays in 5G — a topic that has largely moved to the second page given the pandemic. But this is a massive tech theme."

He's also positive on Tesla, which has surged 270% so far this year. The electric vehicle maker's shares are trading around all-time highs.

"It's really a wildcard here, but Tesla, if they do hit profitability in the quarter, they would be added to the S&P 500. That could be a catalyst," Munster noted.

As the year continues, Munster predicts, there will be a shift away from stay-at-home names in a post-coronavirus pandemic world.

In addition to Netflix, he highlights videoconferencing platform Zoom as a company that faces headwinds. The stock is off about 9% since hitting a record high on Tuesday.

"These are all companies trending at or above 100 P/E [price to earnings] and structurally should see some deceleration in their new user growth," Munster said. "While that is anticipated, I think when that actually happens nonetheless, that will be viewed as a negative."

Disclosure: Gene Munster owns Zillow shares.

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